With about 15 games left to be played, its safe to say predictions for week 4 have been solid (better than your unruly REL counterparts).

REBBL Elo's prediction record was 56-25-34 at the time of writing, which gives it 49% overall and 62% of non-draws. Admin games do not count so they are not artificially inflating the numbers and picking winners at random would have wielded, on average, 39% overall and 50% of the non-draws (this one is obvious) for the week.

Division 5C had the best results with 5 correct picks, one game which had two teams with the exact same rating facing each other and one game left to be played. The more unexpected results come from divisions 3A and 3C, where the system scored a weak 1-1-4 record.

Current results are not expected to be amazing as this is still just a simple implementation of the Elo rating algorithm but they have been aligned with what I was looking for this season. The plan is to have a more robust version next season, squeezing some more percentages here and there. Meanwhile, let's keep the good vibes going. Here are your predictions for the week:

GMAN - Division 1

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Ravens ClawsSkaven137466-30-70 vs DarkElf52.20%
[GMAN] Don't mess with usDarkElf134770-30-66 vs Skaven47.80%
[G] Absolute DisasterDarkElf138675-39-73 vs Chaos46.32%
Slaanesh_SlaughterersChaos143173-39-75 vs DarkElf53.68%
Bloodsuckers inc.Vampire165214-8-14 vs Chaos77.92%
Marvellous MutantsChaos126914-8-14 vs Vampire22.08%
The LizzardblizzardLizardman139148-20-54 vs Dwarf43.54%
[REBBL] BrutaliaDwarf147054-20-48 vs Lizardman56.46%
Ready Lizard OneLizardman159078-23-49 vs Chaos51.21%
TEAM FANTASTICChaos157649-23-78 vs Lizardman48.79%
Da Big Mulligans!Orc122351-34-57 vs Nurgle41.22%
The Iords of The DanceNurgle133157-34-51 vs Orc58.78%
Prof Paresthesia's PetsNecromantic140068-32-48 vs DarkElf59.16%
Dark Angels of LilithDarkElf128748-32-68 vs Necromantic40.84%


GMAN - Division 2A

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Sun-Baked Sea-GuardHighElf11037-2-9 vs Kislev29.72%
I hätt a SauspielKislev13659-2-7 vs HighElf70.28%
Chaqua ChangelingsDarkElf119635-13-22 vs Underworld59.40%
Crystal Core ProcesserUnderworld108122-13-35 vs DarkElf40.60%
RRMafia MumbleratsSkaven129418-8-20 vs Khemri47.16%
United Scarab KhemiratesKhemri132920-8-18 vs Skaven52.84%
Uruk HaikusOrc102340-25-50 vs WoodElf39.64%
Moist OwlettesWoodElf115050-25-40 vs Orc60.36%
Bitten HeroesVampire11132-3-5 vs Bretonnia39.09%
Bert Space Bounty HuntersBretonnia12485-3-2 vs Vampire60.91%
Nurgle Murgle OurgleNurgle133137-18-37 vs Nurgle60.43%
Chosen of Papa NurgleNurgle120337-18-37 vs Nurgle39.57%
Da Waagh TigerzOrc126956-37-70 vs Lizardman62.79%
QuiguanasLizardman111070-37-56 vs Orc37.21%


GMAN - Division 2B

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
TRust in GobGoblin9482-1-5 vs HighElf27.94%
The Voltrex VanguardHighElf12365-1-2 vs Goblin72.06%
The Rat REBBLSkaven140118-8-20 vs Khemri67.72%
The Imperishable FourKhemri117620-8-18 vs Skaven32.28%
Cento MontaditosLizardman123664-35-63 vs DarkElf47.04%
Darkstar Second LinersDarkElf127363-35-64 vs Lizardman52.96%
Orctually RidiculousOrc119651-34-57 vs Nurgle48.94%
Fly Lord ServantsNurgle120957-34-51 vs Orc51.06%
Smart ModelsChaosDwarf124537-31-39 vs Chaos31.32%
Hell's DoofusesChaos148439-31-37 vs ChaosDwarf68.68%
Jinny's SugardaddiesDarkElf11519-9-15 vs Kislev44.51%
Bare GillsKislev121815-9-9 vs DarkElf55.49%
Shock & GoreUndead102119-8-14 vs Bretonnia30.71%
Knights Saying NiBretonnia126814-8-19 vs Undead69.29%


GMAN - Division 3A

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
High SailsWoodElf7978-1-9 vs Amazon28.82%
Jungler BeatsAmazon10729-1-8 vs WoodElf71.18%
Every Game I'm Nufflin'Skaven95163-27-62 vs Chaos42.60%
Nuffle's Yellow HornsChaos104262-27-63 vs Skaven57.40%
Nomentano AthleticsHighElf119136-24-43 vs Nurgle65.26%
My favourit thingsNurgle100043-24-36 vs HighElf34.74%
DRADIS Contact!DarkElf127234-46-49 vs ChaosDwarf69.51%
Men of Grosser BloodChaosDwarf102149-46-34 vs DarkElf30.49%
Goin' le HAMBretonnia122717-11-22 vs Human70.42%
Howling_HuntersHuman96322-11-17 vs Bretonnia29.58%
The Dreaded LurgyNurgle100723-20-19 vs Undead37.46%
Teufelheim TacklersUndead116319-20-23 vs Nurgle62.54%


GMAN - Division 3B

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Granny's ChosenKhemri110320-8-18 vs Skaven59.76%
Furry HaremSkaven98318-8-20 vs Khemri40.24%
Whisky GaloreChaos103734-20-20 vs Bretonnia37.41%
Defence of the AnagramsBretonnia119320-20-34 vs Chaos62.59%
Sabertooth Vag 3.0WoodElf109147-17-46 vs Lizardman50.91%
Third GuardiansLizardman108046-17-47 vs WoodElf49.09%
Ruining Everbodys FunChaosDwarf114325-9-25 vs ChaosDwarf55.41%
Bull to the boneChaosDwarf107725-9-25 vs ChaosDwarf44.59%
Bone Fighter BooOgre8123-3-18 vs Chaos25.24%
Iron MaddenChaos114218-3-3 vs Ogre74.76%
Very Necromantic NecrosNecromantic81749-46-49 vs Nurgle36.46%
Full Throttle RottersNurgle98649-46-49 vs Necromantic63.54%


GMAN - Division 3C

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Natural TalentWoodElf119428-15-36 vs HighElf54.97%
Kopi LuwakHighElf113336-15-28 vs WoodElf45.03%
The_Toxic_Avengers Nurgle108473-36-46 vs DarkElf40.17%
Darkside DreamersDarkElf120646-36-73 vs Nurgle59.83%
Under - Sartosa BBASkaven120865-41-57 vs Lizardman46.96%
The Injurious BasterdsLizardman124557-41-65 vs Skaven53.04%
Clawtimore RamsChaos113481-42-65 vs Orc64.69%
Dazzle WhaaagstazOrc95065-42-81 vs Chaos35.31%
Blood ==> SandKhemri11599-3-9 vs ProElf56.67%
Mirkwood AthleticProElf10779-3-9 vs Khemri43.33%
Knight Juggler is backBretonnia120816-8-14 vs Norse70.67%
Nordic NoobletsNorse94114-8-16 vs Bretonnia29.33%


GMAN - Division 4A

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
The Bootleg AllstarsGoblin8625-0-6 vs Kislev25.69%
Altdorf AcrobataKislev11856-0-5 vs Goblin74.31%
Rats on a StickSkaven84363-27-62 vs Chaos28.21%
ValleKas Ass KickersChaos112762-27-63 vs Skaven71.79%
Kommunity SportOrc103647-19-47 vs Orc55.62%
Beefheart + his merry menOrc96847-19-47 vs Orc44.38%
UmweltschützerinnenAmazon90211-7-17 vs DarkElf39.16%
Baltigore RavensDarkElf103617-7-11 vs Amazon60.84%
Sneaky BlindersUnderworld6029-5-11 vs ProElf21.58%
The Sit Down BoysProElf99511-5-9 vs Underworld78.42%
Tridentum ExsecrataNecromantic115938-20-23 vs Norse74.55%
Tall Dwarfs With No AVNorse83223-20-38 vs Necromantic25.45%
Oomies:Electric BoogalooHuman94833-22-38 vs Nurgle39.98%
Stuff From My FridgeNurgle107138-22-33 vs Human60.02%


GMAN - Division 4B

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Dr Flu's MenNurgle106031-15-40 vs WoodElf60.90%
Soul GuysWoodElf92540-15-31 vs Nurgle39.10%
Feenix HardznailsOrc67432-32-46 vs ChaosDwarf21.53%
BloodhorseChaosDwarf106746-32-32 vs Orc78.47%
Waleed's WarriorsUnderworld100020-11-38 vs Necromantic64.36%
Horror All StarsNecromantic82038-11-20 vs Underworld35.64%
Typical SpanishDarkElf112649-14-49 vs DarkElf61.02%
The Khaine ToadsDarkElf99049-14-49 vs DarkElf38.98%
OrconudosOrc116865-42-81 vs Chaos40.41%
Toro LocoChaos128681-42-65 vs Orc59.59%
The DuellistsAmazon91918-4-17 vs Skaven72.62%
Lurning with LearnieSkaven62317-4-18 vs Amazon27.38%


GMAN - Division 4C

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Shurgard Elf-Storage. WoodElf99550-25-40 vs Orc58.52%
Rorarimbo OrcsOrc89140-25-50 vs WoodElf41.48%
Block you like a hurricanKhemri105928-17-27 vs DarkElf41.58%
Düsseldorf Rhein FireDarkElf116227-17-28 vs Khemri58.42%
Jopen_craftbeersChaos81581-42-65 vs Orc35.53%
G&M's MessagersOrc99765-42-81 vs Chaos64.47%
Alfheim ArtistsDarkElf86748-32-68 vs Necromantic41.01%
Legion of Dead MetalNecromantic97768-32-48 vs DarkElf58.99%
Freyja's GuardNorse107023-7-18 vs HighElf64.37%
Deustuko DragonsHighElf89018-7-23 vs Norse35.63%
Calradian CrusadersNurgle91549-25-50 vs Skaven22.79%
Woofbark's MischiefSkaven128650-25-49 vs Nurgle77.21%
Thermonuclear POMBChaosDwarf120847-26-46 vs Lizardman67.00%
AlligatoradeLizardman99246-26-47 vs ChaosDwarf33.00%


GMAN - Division 4D

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Nurgle Community CollegeChaos97257-37-72 vs Necromantic41.47%
The Last CaressNecromantic107772-37-57 vs Chaos58.53%
GrimDragster's IVProElf10139-9-31 vs Skaven43.25%
Teenage Ninja RatsSkaven109531-9-9 vs ProElf56.75%
A Grimm TaleNurgle66417-4-6 vs Kislev30.25%
Bare NecessitiesKislev9186-4-17 vs Nurgle69.75%
Kingfisher KnightsHuman96425-9-18 vs Norse35.07%
Zmaji SeveraNorse115118-9-25 vs Human64.93%
Da Happy SunsOrc94465-42-81 vs Chaos38.96%
The Tanking GeneralsChaos108081-42-65 vs Orc61.04%
Arrogant Bar StewardsHighElf78448-26-41 vs DarkElf36.29%
The Dark SídheDarkElf95541-26-48 vs HighElf63.71%
grinchOrc92912-1-4 vs Goblin69.52%
Nuffle`s Chosen MisfitsGoblin6794-1-12 vs Orc30.48%


GMAN - Division 4E

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Only Foals and HobgoblinsChaosDwarf113747-21-35 vs Skaven60.40%
Rat Street BoysSkaven100835-21-47 vs ChaosDwarf39.60%
Tyrion's Trial By CombatDwarf96936-16-22 vs Human28.16%
Backhand Bashing BoomersHuman125322-16-36 vs Dwarf71.84%
Maize of TormentNecromantic107249-46-49 vs Nurgle48.37%
Healed to DeathNurgle109249-46-49 vs Necromantic51.63%
The Byzantine BashersChaos83246-22-44 vs HighElf34.08%
RBBLs SupremacyHighElf103344-22-46 vs Chaos65.92%
Tasty TunesUnderworld9399-4-16 vs Norse53.28%
Southern WildlingsNorse89916-4-9 vs Underworld46.72%
Rolling RenegadesDarkElf90844-14-43 vs WoodElf64.10%
TRBBL TryhardsWoodElf73243-14-44 vs DarkElf35.90%
Chicago BolshoitKislev98314-6-7 vs Orc52.56%
Saucy PigsOrc9527-6-14 vs Kislev47.44%


GMAN - Division 4F

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
BreakNec RampageNecromantic96843-27-27 vs Dwarf67.46%
Bad Dorfs RedditDwarf74627-27-43 vs Necromantic32.54%
Da Orc'BoyzOrc85414-6-12 vs Vampire60.44%
Bloody Bullies of BarriaVampire72512-6-14 vs Orc39.56%
Atheist Alliance UnitedWoodElf103741-17-40 vs Skaven41.79%
Not for the Cat#1Skaven113740-17-41 vs WoodElf58.21%
Born In The 80sDarkElf102556-21-31 vs Human75.34%
Sigmar Blood Knights RbblHuman68531-21-56 vs DarkElf24.66%
Ram Jam on HaywireOrc102420-12-16 vs Underworld63.49%
The Candymine FactionUnderworld85616-12-20 vs Orc36.51%
The Bob BrotherhoodNurgle107543-24-36 vs HighElf62.24%
Maybe a season?HighElf92336-24-43 vs Nurgle37.76%


GMAN - Division 5A

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
DeadpolsNecromantic91116-6-10 vs Kislev35.14%
The KleaptocratsKislev109710-6-16 vs Necromantic64.86%
FullMetal AlkhemristKhemri108819-14-19 vs ChaosDwarf47.37%
Hat TricksChaosDwarf112019-14-19 vs Khemri52.63%
Rockomotive GitcrushersAmazon103911-7-17 vs DarkElf56.03%
Witches Be Trippin'DarkElf96517-7-11 vs Amazon43.97%
The Blessed OnesChaos90437-29-39 vs WoodElf49.72%
Amazing StrippersWoodElf90739-29-37 vs Chaos50.28%
Fecal Fantasy VIINurgle104328-30-23 vs Dwarf59.43%
Dorflectric MayhemDwarf92723-30-28 vs Nurgle40.57%
[REBBL]Delicacies of DoomProElf92313-6-30 vs DarkElf41.79%
Serpents of InnoruukDarkElf102430-6-13 vs ProElf58.21%
FullMetal's AlkhemristsKhemri92620-8-18 vs Skaven34.11%
Revenge Of The RattatasSkaven112718-8-20 vs Khemri65.89%


GMAN - Division 5B

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Fruit of the TombUndead95010-1-4 vs Halfling57.52%
Cookpot CanniballsHalfling8584-1-10 vs Undead42.48%
Darkest DelfsDarkElf94863-35-64 vs Lizardman38.96%
Hexoatl BravesLizardman108464-35-63 vs DarkElf61.04%
The Tunnel SneaksSkaven100849-9-49 vs Skaven54.74%
Gas Town Gangers Skaven95049-9-49 vs Skaven45.26%
17 Weeks of SufferingNorse10229-3-8 vs Kislev55.32%
The Bridgeburners!Kislev9578-3-9 vs Norse44.68%
Porc squadOrc108914-6-12 vs Vampire54.18%
Blood & Tears.Vampire103812-6-14 vs Orc45.82%
Da Orkz On TourOrc113842-20-33 vs Dwarf62.35%
Tungsten TitansDwarf98533-20-42 vs Orc37.65%
2+ Supreme LeadersHighElf96826-20-33 vs ChaosDwarf47.10%
One thick coatChaosDwarf100433-20-26 vs HighElf52.90%


GMAN - Division 5C

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Cracking'n WreckingOrc117736-20-39 vs Norse50.85%
Norfsca FCNorse116739-20-36 vs Orc49.15%
The Warped PoneysUnderworld82116-12-20 vs Orc42.07%
Zuggogh Wild BoarzOrc91820-12-16 vs Underworld57.93%
ChaosicaChaos95457-37-72 vs Necromantic56.09%
our dog fridayNecromantic88072-37-57 vs Chaos43.91%
Face PlantersHighElf99626-12-41 vs Dwarf48.80%
Mosh Mob MünchenDwarf101141-12-26 vs HighElf51.20%
Grail Knights CavalryBretonnia11313-5-3 vs Kislev73.88%
LOS PAYASOS DE LA TELEKislev8153-5-3 vs Bretonnia26.12%
Bloody Dark Spiky MaimersDarkElf109249-14-49 vs DarkElf58.41%
TraumameistridDarkElf98949-14-49 vs DarkElf41.59%
Die Wilde 13Skaven113431-9-9 vs ProElf67.20%
REBBL VaporwelvesProElf9169-9-31 vs Skaven32.80%


GMAN - Division 5D

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Bloody SinfulDarkElf98176-47-84 vs Orc37.08%
New Yorc PilandersOrc114184-47-76 vs DarkElf62.92%
BarkengardNecromantic86639-19-40 vs HighElf28.88%
Winged AdversariesHighElf114040-19-39 vs Necromantic71.12%
[R] InmemoriumUndead90834-27-33 vs Lizardman52.33%
Don Bluth's BedlamsLizardman87933-27-34 vs Undead47.67%
Victorian VictoryBretonnia9557-3-4 vs ProElf45.15%
The Elf-BombProElf10144-3-7 vs Bretonnia54.85%
Major AnnoyanceSkaven100025-10-18 vs Underworld43.68%
Ascii Rats&GobsUnderworld107818-10-25 vs Skaven56.32%
Kislev SyndromeKislev91210-3-17 vs Skaven53.58%
ZarratSkaven86817-3-10 vs Kislev46.42%
Black Death BuccaneersChaos109239-31-37 vs ChaosDwarf43.91%
The Mining Machine ReturnChaosDwarf116737-31-39 vs Chaos56.09%


GMAN - Division 5E

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
Scions of OakHeartWoodElf88043-14-44 vs DarkElf40.09%
Ricardo and The BoysDarkElf100244-14-43 vs WoodElf59.91%
Prelfs on the ShelfProElf105011-5-11 vs HighElf43.11%
'Elfy IndividualsHighElf113411-5-11 vs ProElf56.89%
Agazapados tras las ramasWoodElf104512-12-17 vs Khemri58.38%
The Toot UncommonsKhemri94217-12-12 vs WoodElf41.62%
Haley's Traveling CircusKislev10289-2-7 vs HighElf55.98%
Higher then the grinderHighElf9557-2-9 vs Kislev44.02%
The Crying HoundsHuman91622-10-27 vs HighElf36.20%
XVI. Legion Luna WolvesHighElf108827-10-22 vs Human63.80%
Chorf RageChaosDwarf104615-2-7 vs Ogre53.76%
REBBL OgreOgre10007-2-15 vs ChaosDwarf46.24%
Da Gob SquadGoblin8242-4-13 vs ChaosDwarf29.46%
Urwendorian Random MinersChaosDwarf108913-4-2 vs Goblin70.54%


GMAN - Division 5F

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
We are ZonsAmazon9947-4-11 vs Vampire54.02%
Dull Fangs IIVampire94511-4-7 vs Amazon45.98%
New Romantic XINecromantic96650-14-23 vs Human40.06%
Kingdom Come DeliveranceHuman108923-14-50 vs Necromantic59.94%
Supremacist RunnersProElf10439-9-13 vs ChaosDwarf58.20%
Chaotic BangersChaosDwarf94213-9-9 vs ProElf41.80%
Disturbingly RatlikeSkaven106457-23-37 vs HighElf59.63%
Rebbl ElfariHighElf94637-23-57 vs Skaven40.37%
Made in ChernobylNurgle105660-33-40 vs Chaos55.10%
Chaos Black NightmaresChaos99340-33-60 vs Nurgle44.90%
Green LegionOrc104532-32-46 vs ChaosDwarf64.34%
River Ruin RaftersChaosDwarf86646-32-32 vs Orc35.66%
Rebbl Pain CovenDarkElf90217-7-11 vs Amazon30.81%
Women's BB Office TeamAmazon114811-7-17 vs DarkElf69.19%


GMAN - Division 5G

NameRaceElo RatingRace Matchup (REL and GMAN history)Expected Result
FABBLous 2Lizardman114533-27-34 vs Undead58.37%
Jund Reanimate Undead104334-27-33 vs Lizardman41.63%
The Tiger LizardsLizardman118116-7-12 vs Vampire70.54%
Tampa Bay SuckaneersVampire91612-7-16 vs Lizardman29.46%
Orcanized KrimeOrc103920-11-16 vs ProElf59.41%
1066 and all thatProElf92316-11-20 vs Orc40.59%
Proud WomenAmazon103916-5-24 vs Necromantic53.44%
En Passant!Necromantic99724-5-16 vs Amazon46.56%
Land of Make BelieveHuman8197-0-5 vs Ogre46.53%
The ExposablesOgre8625-0-7 vs Human53.47%
Glorious Misery REBBLNurgle113460-33-40 vs Chaos57.23%
Procedimiento-ilegalChaos104640-33-60 vs Nurgle42.77%
Grass Sneaky DodgersWoodElf104946-21-45 vs Necromantic54.00%
Scarlet CharlatansNecromantic100045-21-46 vs WoodElf46.00%

- C_Arnoud

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