What is this?  

In an attempt to make REBBL Elo easier for yours truly, I've decided to point all of the league posts to a single post each week where I can do the usual results analysis, address issues and offer explanations (although I'm also happy to reply the questions that you guys make on discord or reddit).  

The format will of course evolve with time but, for now, I thought it would be easier to find what you might be looking for on this Q&A format. Might also be a bit of narcisism coming through :smiley_face:.  

Why is my division not listed?

Since I've been off REBBL for a while, I didn't know the lowest tier divisions where moved into whole different leagues. So the code which reads games for all divisions into the three main leagues now doesn't reach your tier, please, be patient as fixing this is probably the highest priority.

So what happened with the bug last week?

I've mixed up team ids from rebbl.net and ids from the local database, making it so teams where never found. Then, excited to finally be able to crank these out again, I've posted the results without giving myself an extra week for validation.  

Thankfully, the keenest eyes among you alerted me to the mistake and I updated the posts as fast I as could. I intend on doing the same in the future, so if something goes wrong please alert me (as you did last week) and check for updates to the posts.

Why did rankings change so much after a single week?

Because I was not happy with how low the rating for top teams was and changed the normal curve used to calculate ratings. I like to see the top teams push closer to the 2000 mark, while the lowest teams push closer to 1000. Prediction quality should not be altered as I changed the deviation according to the new norm (1500).

I have no intention to keep changing this, but I also intend on making changes to improve prediction quality or in cases like this one.

Where are the prediction results from last week?

The previous season, I was tallying up results in a much more manual way than I would like. So, for the current season, I would like to have an automated way to provide results.  

That involves me creating a prediction model on the database and then having a script check whether or not the system predicted it right and poofing out results in a digestable manner.

It shouldn't take long to do it, but I'll still need to sit down and code it. What I do have now is a script which compares results from predicting all games in REBBL history (including the latest ones) with different sets of parameters, so I do have a good idea of how well the system is doing although I won't be able to give you results from the specifics picks made last week.

Why does the BIG-O post have so few divisions?

At the time of writing this, only 5 divisions were being listed on rebbl.net's API, so the system was only able to get those. 

- C_Arnoud

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